EXPECTED DA FROM JULY 2013 IS 90% – CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (INDUSTRIAL WORKERS) FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL 2013 RELEASED – 2 POINT INCREASE IN CPI (IW)
Expected DA from July 2013 – Ministry of Labour and Employment has released AICPI (IW) – All India Consumer Price Index (Industrial Workers) for the month of April 2013. This index gains significance as far as central government employees and pensioners are concerned as determination of Dearness Allowance twice in a year is based on AICPI (IW).
All India Consumer Price Index for the period from July 2012 to June 2013 will be required to calculate expected DA from July 2013, for Central Government Employeesand Pensioners
AICPI (IW) for the period from July 2013 to April 2013
| Month | AICPI-IW |
|---|---|
| Jul 2012 | 212 |
| Aug 2012 | 214 |
| Sep 2012 | 215 |
| Oct 2012 | 217 |
| Nov 2012 | 218 |
| Dec 2012 | 219 |
| Jan 2013 | 221 |
| Feb 2013 | 223 |
| Mar 2013 | 224 |
| Apr 2013 | 226 |
| May 2013 | To be released in the month June 2013 |
| Jun 2013 | To be released in the month July 2013 |
TWO SCENARIOS ON THE PROGRESSION OF AICPI (IW)
| Scenario 1 (AICPI for May and June 2013 assumed to be same) | Scenario 2 (AICPI for May and June 2013 assumed to be 231 and 234) | |
|---|---|---|
| Month | AICPI-IW | AICPI-IW |
| Jul 2012 | 212 | 212 |
| Aug 2012 | 214 | 214 |
| Sep 2012 | 215 | 215 |
| Oct 2012 | 217 | 217 |
| Nov 2012 | 218 | 218 |
| Dec 2012 | 219 | 219 |
| Jan 2013 | 221 | 221 |
| Feb 2013 | 223 | 223 |
| Mar 2013 | 224 | 224 |
| Apr 2013 | 226 | 226 |
| May 2013 (expected) | 226 | 231 |
| Jun 2013 (expected) | 226 | 234 |
| Expected DA | 90% | 91% |
Scenario 1:
If we assume that AICPI (IW) for May and June 2013 will be same viz., 226 for the months of May 2013 and June 2013 the expected DA for the Central GovernmentEmployees and pensioners will be 90%, which is 10% more than the present 80%
Scenario 2:
In the case of more inflation and if we assume that AICPI (IW) for May 2013 and June 2013, will be 231 and 234 respectively then only Central Government employees and pensioners will be to get 1% more increase in DA than the 10% increase of DA we get in Scenario 1. The minimum assumed values for AICPI (IW) for May 2013 and June 2013 will be 231 and 234 respectively which would give DA increase of 11% more than the existing DA of 80%s viz., Dearness allowance for central government Employees and pensioners
Chances of Scenario 1 coming to reality is More
Chances of Scenario 1 coming to reality are more, since 4 point increase for the months of May 2013 and June 2013 may not possible which is considered for estimating DA in Scenario 2. So we can expect that Dearness Allowance from July 2013 will be 90%.
Please note that actual increase of DA from July 2013 will be known only after the formalannouncement of the same by Government in the month of October 2013.
USE THE FOLLOWING DA CALCULATOR TO TEST THE ABOVE 2 SCENARIOS
Full text of PIB release for announcing AICPI (IW) for the month of April 2013 is as follows
Press Information BureauGovernment of IndiaMinistry of Labour & Employment31-May-2013 18:07 ISTConsumer Price Index Numbers for Industrial Workers (CPI-IW) April 2013
According to a press release issued today by the Labour Bureau, Ministry of Labour & EmploymHowdy, adminent the All-India CPI-IW for April, 2013 rose by 2 point and pegged at 226 (two hundred and twenty six). On 1-month percentage change, it increased by 0.89 per cent between March and April compared with 1.99 per cent between the same two months a year ago.The largest upward contribution to the change in current index came from Food group which increased by 2.08 per cent, contributing 2.07 percentage points to the total change. This was followed by Fuel & Light group with 0.91 percent increase contributing 0.12 percentage points to the change. At item level, largest upward pressure came from Rice, Wheat & Wheat Atta, Arhar Dal, Milk (Cow), Ginger, Root & Green Non-leafy vegetables, Tea Leaf, Tea (Readymade), Snack Saltish, Cigaratte, Electricity Charges, Medicine (Allopathic) etc. However, this was compensated by Mustard Oil and Petrol putting downward pressure on the index.The year-on-year inflation measured by monthly CPI-IW stood at 10.24 per cent for April, 2013 as compared to 11.44 per cent for the previous month and 10.22 per cent during the corresponding month of the previous year. Similarly, the Food inflation stood at 12.39 per cent against 13.21 per cent of the previous month and 10.66 per cent during the corresponding month of the previous year.At centre level, Mysore recorded the largest increase of 13 points followed by Giridih, Bengaluru and Puducherry (8 points each) and Darjeeling (7 points). Among others, 6 points rise was registered in 6 centres, 5 points in 2 centres, 4 points in 7 centres, 3 points in 15 centres, 2 points in 17 centres and and 1 point in 13 centres. On the contrary, a decline of 4 points was reported in Godavarikhani, 2 points in 4 centres and 1 point in one centre. Rest of the 7 centres’ indices remained stationary.The indices of 40 centres are above All-India Index and other 35 centres’ indices are below national average. The index of Chandigarh, Haldia and Ahmedabad centres remained at par with all-India index.The next index of CPI-IW for the month of May, 2013 will be released on Friday, 28 June, 2013. The same will also be available on the officewebsite www.labourbureau.gov.in.
Source: PIB news